Hollinger, you’re wrong. You should admit it.

ESPN.com started a new Power Rankings system by John Hollinger this year. It takes an advanced statistical formula to calculate who is really the best team this year, not just the team with the best record. As of Monday, the San Antonio Spurs had been listed as the #1 team for at least four days in a row. He recently posted on his blog a defense for the formula. Here is a snippet of what he wrote:

One of the biggest reasons I created this ranking is to force people to look beyond the superficial first impression. In this case, it involves looking past won-loss record at the elements that go into it. On its face this sounds absurd, I realize — isn’t winning the whole point? But as I’ve been trying to beat into people’s heads over and over again, point differential is a better indicator of future success than won-loss record. In other words, if you were trying to pick a game between the Mavs and Spurs tomorrow, you’d be better off ignoring the standings and looking just at point differential.

Ok, John. If that’s the case, then Tuesday morning the Mavericks should at least be tied with the Spurs. They now have the exact same point differential per game. But let’s take it one step further. Let’s take a look at the point differential of the Mavs and Spurs vs. common opponents in the past month. That should give a good indicator of who’s playing better recently, right?

Atlanta – Dallas won by 23 (2/26), San Antonio won by 7 (2/21)
Denver – Dallas won by 20 (2/24), San Antonio won by 15 (2/20)
Miami – Dallas won by 12 (2/22), San Antonio lost by 15 (2/11)

Against these three teams in the past month Dallas is +55, and San Antonio is +7.

Hollinger, your formula is flawed. The only way you can be proven right is if San Antonio beats Dallas in the playoffs. Until then, try to show a little humility and admit you’re wrong.

I just keeps getting better for Dallas

Just when I think that the Mavericks have set every record they are going to set this year another one pops up. After beating Atlanta on Monday they have become the first team in NBA history to have three separate 12 game or more winning streaks in a single season. Here’s what the AP had to say about it:

The Mavericks are the first team in NBA history with three winning streaks of 12 or more in a season, having already had runs of 12 and 13 games. The Milwaukee Bucks (1970-71), Philadelphia 76ers (1980-81) and Los Angeles Lakers (1999-2000) have had three winning streaks of 10 or more in a season.

Of those three other ten game winners, the Bucks and Lakers both won the NBA Finals. Hopefully the Mavs will follow suit this year.

Recipe for Dirk being MVP? Get Hurt.

It seems like the best way to improve your chances to winning the MVP is to get hurt, miss a few games and have your team struggle. That seems to be the case, at least, for the Steve Nash for MVP talk. He missed a few games recently and his team tanked it. That has made a lot of people on the internet say that it proves how good Nash really is and how deserving he is of his third-straight MVP award.

The problem I have with this line of thinking is that you are rewarding a player for his not playing. Missing games should not improve your chances of getting an award for playing basketball. If anything, getting hurt should hurt your case. Playing games should be the only criteria for the MVP. I know one of the arguments for who the MVP should be is to argue how worse a team is if he is not playing. But that just doesn’t make sense when you look at it closely. Like I’ve said, you should not reward a player for missing games.

The only player that I think deserves to be in the conversation of who the MVP is this year other than Dirk Nowitzki is Tracy McGrady. What is happening with the Rockets is exactly the opposite of what Steve Nash and the Suns went through. McGrady is carrying his team without its second best player. That’s MVP-like dominance. But I hear very little talk about T-Mac for MVP, probably because his team is only the 4th or 5th best team.

So, Dirk. If you really want to win MVP this year, here is what you should do. Get a few more games ahead of the Suns. Come down with a “sore knee” that forces you to sit out 3-4 games down the stretch. Finally, convince your teammates to tank it when you’re out. That will get you the MVP. I guarantee it.

This should not make me happy, but . . .

Wade Injured

Dwayne Wade injured his shoulder against the Houston Rockets last night. It’s not clear right now how serious the injury is, but in a small, carnal way it makes me a little bit happy. Don’t get me wrong. I’m never happy about someone else getting injured as it relates to his personal life. But as a Mavericks fan, with memories of last June, I’m not too upset that Wade is hurt.

The downside to this is that Dallas and Miami are facing each other Thursday night. What this injury does is effectively eliminate any sort of “rematch” from last season’s Finals. Last time they played, Shaq was hurt. This time it’s Wade. That’s really ok, though, because the regular season will never have even close to the meaning that the playoffs, and in particular the Finals, have.

Get Well Soon, Dwayne.

More NBA Stats

Being a Mavericks fan, I’m incredibly excited about where they sit at the All-Star break. 44 wins and 9 losses. Only 9 losses at the All-Star break. That’s less than ten. Does that even matter? Well, no. The only thing that will matter in the grand scheme of things is how they sit at the end of June. However, the second place team in the Southwest division, the Spurs, already have 18 losses. The best they can finish is 64-18, but that’s not going to happen. Even if the Spurs end up running the table, the Mavericks would have to lose more games in the remaining 29 games than they did in the first 53. Again, that’s not going to happen.

I started looking at the Mavs stats in wins & losses the other day. Unlike the Suns, there is a great difference in their production when they win than when they lose. First off, Dallas is averaging 102.2 points per game when they win, but only 88.6 points when they lose. That’s a 13.6 point difference. There are only four other teams (Denver, Boston, Memphis, Washington) who have a bigger difference in wins and losses. They also attempt 2.3 more field goals in losses, and all 2.3 of those are three pointers. Two more stats. The Mavs average 5.5 more rebounds per game when they win, and they average 1 more foul per game when they win. Charlotte, Minnesota, and Boston are the only other team who foul more when they win than when they lose.

So what do these stats tell us about how Dallas wins? One word. Aggressiveness. The three things that point to that are their rebounding, fouls, and field goal attempts. The thing that stands out to me when I watch Dallas lose is that they seem really passive. They don’t drive the ball to the paint enough, and they seem lazy on defense. The stats back those up.

The hard thing about being aggresive is that it can be tough to do every game. The regular season is really long, and there are some games (Charlotte for example), that are harder to get revved up for than others. That’s why Avery is the perfect coach for this team. He will not sit idly by and allow his team to get lazy. Keep it up coach.

You can see some of these stats at Yahoo! Sports.