The Biggest Flaw in John Hollinger’s ESPN NBA Power Rankings

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If you’re an average NBA fan you probably don’t have a clue who John Hollinger is. You probably haven’t ever seen his Power Rankings on ESPN.com either. Rest assured, you’re not missing much. It’s flawed at its core for one reason: it’s completely objective.

In everyday  conversations, most people would probably say that being completely objective is a good thing. But the reality is that a little bit of subjectivity is actually essential. In sports this is especially true.

There’s only one stat in sports where being completely objective works: wins (unless you’re talking about NCAA Division I Football, in which wins become subjective). The beauty of sports championships is that you can’t argue who the best team is once the season is over. Whoever won the title is best. Period. Even if that championship team hit a late hot streak and someone tries to say that “the best team didn’t win,” it doesn’t matter. A win is a win and a championship is a championship. There is no award for a team who was actually better than the team that won.

What Hollinger has done is created a ranking system in which the rank of a team isn’t affected at all by its wins. It’s not even factored into the equation. The only stat that he cares about is scoring margin. Whichever team outscores its opponents the most moves up the rankings. If a team only squeaks by in its wins they move down.

This is how he puts it. “One of my goals was to create a system that told us more about a team’s quality than the standings do. So instead of winning percentage, these rankings use points scored and points allowed, which are better indicators of a team’s quality than wins and losses.”

As I’ve blogged before, there is a problem with this system. It tricks up wins. The BCS has even dropped this stat from their ranking system, but Hollinger and ESPN are sticking with it. The reason there’s a big problem with using just this stat to determine the rank of a team, especially the way he has it set up, is that a team could go undefeated throughout the season and still be ranked last. Here’s why.

Hollinger’s formula is posted on ESPN’s site as this:

RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

This probably makes no sense, so let me explain. There are two things he has done. First, he’s weighted home wins as meaning less than road wins. How he was done this is by setting it up to where if the home team wins by three points or less that win actually would negatively impact their rank. Second, he’s weighted the most recent 25% of the season’s games at 1/3 of the total value. This second part makes sense, but the home performance factor is still there, so in a sense the least valuable thing a team can do to move up in the Power Rankings is win at home.

The reason I’m pointing this out now is that the Mavericks are the best example of why this system is broken. As of this writing, the Dallas Mavericks are ranked 13th in his Power Rankings. That’s right, 12 other teams are considered to be better than the Mavs, who have rattled off ten consecutive wins (the tenth win hasn’t been factored in yet, though, since the rankings are updated each morning).

Here are the teams currently ranked above Dallas. 1) Cavs; 2) Magic; 3) Lakers; 4) Jazz; 5) Suns; 6) Nuggets; 7) Hawks; 8) Spurs; 9) Thunder; 10) Celtics; 11) Trail Blazers; and 12) Bucks. I don’t really have an issue with the top 4 being ahead of the Mavs, but the Bucks…really? Also, didn’t the Mavs just beat a lot of these teams in the past month? (They did).

I’m not going to make a case yet that the Mavs are true title contenders this year, but I do know that they’re not near the bottom half of the league in regards to how good they are. After all, they do have the fourth best record in the league.

But with Hollinger, wins don’t really matter that much.

What do you think about his rankings?

Basketball goal image by flickr user Baffle.

Problems With My Blog

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— UPDATE (3/5/10, 4:45 pPM): Everything seems to be working right now. Let me know if you run into any issues. —

I’ve been trying to work out some problems with my blog for the past day. You may not even ever see this post, but just wanted to put something up that hopefully will show up on the front page.

Image by flickr user jmarty.

Proof That God Has a Sense of Humor

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In my Bible reading today, I read a verse that I believe proves that God indeed does have a sense of humor. Check out the pic of Exodus 34:1 below.

The part that makes me think God is ribbing Moses here are the words “which you broke.” God seems to be saying, “Ok, Moses. You had your little temper tantrum the other day, remember? I gave you two stone tablets with the Ten Commandments on them. You know, the rules that will be the foundation on which all of future civilizations’ laws will be based and you decided to chunk them down on the ground because you were mad. Way to go big guy.” (Don’t quote me on the above quote of God, please. I’m pretty sure those words are not inspired by the Holy Spirit).

What do you think? Does God have a sense of humor or not? What other verses prove it one way or another?

Check Out My Other Blog: ProductiveMinistry.com

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Yesterday marked the start of another blogging endeavor for me. Rocky Hernandez and I officially (re)launched ProductiveMinistry.com. What does that mean for this blog? Not a whole lot, other than I’ll probably be shifting away from posting ministry-related blog posts on this blog.

If you’re in ministry, either professionally or as a volunteer, I highly recommend clicking on over to the blog. We’ll be adding a lot more content in every week. You can also connect with PM by subscribing to the RSS feed, following on Twitter, or becoming a fan on facebook.

Take a look then comment either here or there or on Twitter. Any feedback is truly appreciated.

Three Lessons I Learned About Blog Traffic This Past Month

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I think everyone who has a blog goes through stages in his or her blogging. Inevitably a blogger hits a wall. The inspiration to write disappears and you feel like you don’t really have anything valuable to offer the blogosphere. I hit that wall this past year big time, but over the past couple weeks I’ve been blogging more regularly. Over the past few weeks I’ve learned a few lessons about how blog traffic fluctuates right along with how frequently you write. Here they are.

More posts = More traffic

Take a look at the above graphic. It’s a chart from Google Analytics of the visits to my blog over the past 30 days. See the peak right in the middle? That’s the day I decided to get back into regular blogging and posted three new posts that day. I linked to the posts from my twitter and facebook accounts and traffic jumped. It jumped quite a bit, in fact.

New traffic doesn’t come automatically

You can also see over the week or so that followed there was a drop off again. It lines up perfectly with a fall off of blogging again. For some reason I had thought that my bump in traffic would keep up. It didn’t If you want more readers you have to write more.

Writing about popular topics will generate new traffic

One of the posts I did this past month was about Ed Young, pastor at Fellowship Church, and the news story that the local ABC affiliate ran about his salary. That post generated a comment from a person I’m pretty sure I don’t personally know. Also, my blog is the number seven Google search result for Ed Young salary and number eight for mega churches in Dallas. Those stats won’t really general much long term traffic, I think, but it does show that hot topics, either nationally or locally, will bump your traffic.ProBlogger by Darren Rowse and Chris Garrett

Those are just a few things I’ve learned over the past month in blogging. What are some tips you have about generating traffic to your blog? Share in the comments.

You can also find a lot tips in Darren Rowse and Chris Garret‘s great book on blogging ProBlogger. I’ve read it and highly recommend picking one up if you’re interested in becoming a better blogger.

 

Gorditas and The Curse of Knowledge

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Sometimes a normal, seemingly every day encounter can teach you an important life lesson. The other day Brea (my wife) had asked me go by Taco Bell for dinner and, since she’s over six months pregnant, she gets what she wants. She couldn’t remember if she liked the Gordita or Chalupa better, so she described what it was like then I went straight to the Taco Bell Drive-Thru.

As I pulled up to order, I asked the guy on the other side of the speaker if he could describe to me what a gordita is. His reply: “It’s a Gordita.” You may be shocked, but that didn’t really help me on my quest to get my preggers wife the exact item of food she desired, so I pressed further. “Ok, what kind of shell does it have?” “A gordita shell” was his response. At this point I started to wonder if I was really just dumb, since apparently everyone else in the world knows exactly what a gordita is. I attempted once more to get a little more information about this elusive delicacy by asking, “Could you describe it some for me?” His reply, “It’s a taco inside a gordita shell.” So I just said, “Ok, I’ll take one” and hoped that this would satisfy the woman carrying my second child in her womb.

I worked the drive-through at Chick-Fil-A in high school and college, so I know how hard it is to communicate over the intercom, but I left there feeling like the cashier could have done a little better in his explanations of the gordita. I probably could have asked better questions, too. Thankfully, Brea was happy with the gordita, so I didn’t have to make another Run for the Border.

This encounter reminded me of one of the concepts that really stuck out when I read the book Made to Stick by Chip Heath and Dan Heath called “The Curse of Knowledge.” Here’s an excerpt of what Chip & Dan wrote about it:

“Once we know something, we find it hard to imagine what it was like not to know it. Our knowledge has ‘cursed’ us. And it becomes difficult for us to share our knowledge with others, because we can’t readily re-create our listeners’ state of mind.”

An example they gave in the book was a test that was done where people would tap out a popular song for another person to guess what the song was. The songs were common ones like “The Star Spangled Banner” or “Twinkle Twinkle, Little Star.” It would seem like that would be really easy to guess one of those songs if you heard it being tapped out, but it’s really not. If you don’t believe me, try it out with someone.

This encounter did make me wonder about how preachers and teachers in the church do the same thing. How often do we talk about things like grace, fellowship, mercy, forgiveness, and repentance assuming that everyone knows exactly what we mean by each of these terms? Once you know what these terms mean it’s really hard to refer to them as anything else, but if you don’t know what they are you’ll probably be lost.

Thank you, Mr. Taco Bell Drive-Thru Dude, for an important reminder to communicate with people in a way that they will understand.

Where have you seen or heard the curse of knowledge in your everyday life?

Gordita image courtesy of flickr user The Canyon Guru.

Same Kind of Different as Me [Book Review]

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I tend to read mostly non-fiction, leadership, or personal development books in my personal reading. So when Brea (my wife) and about half a dozen other people suggested that I read Same Kind of Different as Me, I hesitated. While the book is non-fiction, it’s more of a biography than anything else. I wasn’t sure if I’d really enjoy the book that much.

Let me tell you this: If you have not yet read this book, do yourself a favor and add it to you reading list. I got through it in about three sessions (albeit LONG ones). It captured my attention, my mind, and my emotions. The authors draw you into their lives and tug at your heart. It’s a story of transformation, compassion, and forgiveness. The main characters’ lives are extremely different, but they are drawn together through what can best be considered God’s will.

The main thing I took away from this book is that I need to step out of my comfortable bubble and start loving people who are different than me with the tangible love of the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Also, when I do this, I need to do it not because I’m better than anyone else (I’m not) or because others need it (they do), but because people matter. All people. People who may seem different than me, but really are the same.

Have you read this book? What were your thoughts?

Curling is My Secret Winter Olympics Obsession

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It really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense why, but I really love watching curling during the Winter Olympics. So much so that I like to set the TiVo to record it so I can watch whenever I want to.

You wouldn’t think that a guy who has spent almost all of his life living in the heat of Texas would have any interest in the sport, but I do. I can’t really explain it. Maybe it’s the allure of the bizarre nature of the sport, but I just get drawn into the sweeping, throwing, and all that comes with the event.

Which events do you like best about the Winter Olympics?

A Ridiculously Easy (and Free) Way to Keep Your Toddler Entertained

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Having a little one around the house is awesome. But there are times that she’s not as entertained as normal by the same toys/videos/games she plays with every day. When these moments come we, as parents, sometime are stuck trying to come up with new ways to keep our little ones’ minds entertained. It can be tough to find new (and free) ideas, so why not just go back to an old classic: the fort.

This week I rediscovered how much little kids (at least my twenty month old daughter) love to play in pretend forts (or “house” as my daughter calls it). I remembered this idea when I was flipping through the book Cheap Ways To … the other day. All I had to do was rearrange our four dining room chairs a little and toss a comforter over them. She has absolutely LOVED it. I bet she could play in it for over an hour before getting bored. Best of all, it’s FREE!!!

Here’s a couple pictures of the fort:
Ridiculously easy
She loves playing in this fort

This probably should have been a no-brainer, but I really had just forgotten about it.

Got any other ideas on keeping little ones entertained?