Today’s NBA Daily Dime is all about the blunder in logic that Avery had. Both Marc Stein and Jalen Rose thought it was a terrible decision to bench Kidd in the last 30 seconds. Take a look at the poll below or read the story yourself.

The Mavericks lost to San Antonio and Jason Kidd was on the bench when it mattered most, but would it really have made a difference if he was in the game? Let’s take a look at some pictures.

First off, take a look at the clock. Kidd was on the bench with Dallas down by two points and 12.7 seconds left in the game. He was actually out for the last 30 seconds or so, but this picture tells the story.

Next up, take a look at the defense. Count the defense and take a look at what they are doing. All five Spurs are watching Terry with the ball. This woud have been the perfect chance to catch them off-guard.

Take a look at Josh Howard. There is no defender within 12 feet of him. Terry should have tossed him the ball and let him either shoot, pass to the open man in the corner, or drive to the basket. Kidd no doubt would have dished the ball in a heartbeat.

But Terry didn’t pass. He held on to the ball and waited for almost five seconds for someone else to move to create a play. Dirk saw this, so he came over to setup a pick and roll.

Dirk set the pick and roll up really well, so what is supposed to happen here is Terry passes the ball to Dirk and let him either drive to the hoop (remember the move he made to draw a foul from Ginobili in the 2006 playoffs?) or shoot a wide-open jump shot.

The opportunity to move the ball didn’t end with the non-pass to Dirk. Terry moved to the free-throw line, drew in Manu Ginobili, which would have been another chance to pass to Howard, who could have swung the ball over to Stackhouse (whose defender most likely would have come over to guard Howard) or drove to the basket. But, again, no pass.

Lastly, even when Terry was up in the air with Bowen right on him, he still had people wide open for good looks. Take a look at it. Dirk has both his hands up waiting for a pass to Terry’s right. Howard is still open at the three point line. Stackhouse is now WIDE OPEN, since his defender decided to come over and help guard the basket. But again, it didn’t happen.

In the end, Avery’s decision to bench Kidd may not have been the reason the Mavs lost, but him being on the bench ended up being the wrong decision. It’s a mistake that I really hope Avery doesn’t make again.

The end of the Mavericks vs Spurs game on Thursday showed me something I’ve known for a while: Avery Johnson is a defensive minded coach whose decisions on the offensive end have become stale. Every since the Finals of 2006 I’ve noticed it. There are a lot of times that the offense breaks down, people are standing around, and nothing really happens unless a shooter makes his shot.

That was supposed to change.

The blockbuster, epic saga that was the Jason Kidd, Devin Harris trade was supposed to bring a spark back to this team. He was brought to Dallas to make it easier for Dirk, Josh, and JET to get the ball and make shots. He was brought here because he knows how close out games and win in the fourth quarter. Avery himself said this about Kidd at the post-trade press conference, “He’s going to help us just because at the end of the games, he knows how to win. … He knows how to finish games. That’s what we need.”

Kidd said similar things about himself. “The big thing is just to understand how to win a game with six minutes left in the fourth quarter and not shying away from that time. Wanting the ball, make or miss, being involved in the play so you can help your team win.”

In the first real test of Kidd and the Mavs, you would expect him to have the opportunity to prove his worth, wouldn’t you? He didn’t. In the closing possession of the game, Avery chose to put Kidd on the bench. Take a look at what happened:


(if you can’t see the video click here)

The biggest problem I have with Kidd being on the bench is that Avery’s logic makes no sense. Jason Kidd is one of the best passers in the history of the NBA. He creates plays for his teammates. His first thought is to pass the ball, which makes it easier for everyone around him to score. I’ve seen the difference it has made in the rest of the team in his first three games with the team. Why wouldn’t you want him on the floor?

Avery answered this question after the game. “Well, we were looking at spreading the floor with all of our shooters in the game. We wanted to put Stack, Josh and Jet, and that gave Dirk some more room to operate in those situations.”I’m sorry Avery. The days of Dirk creating his own shot are over. Jason Kidd will create shot opportunities for Dirk if you let him. If you want to create “more room” for Dirk “to operate” than Devin Harris should still be the Mavericks point guard. Charles Barkley echoed this after the game. “That was a bad decision, because there’s no sense in making Jason Kidd trade if you’re not going to play him in crunch time. You had Jason Terry; you had Devin Harris.”

Bottom-line. Avery needs to change his coaching strategy on offense. If not, either he or Kidd don’t need to be here.

The NBA season is past the halfway mark. The official break of the All-star game is still a week away, but every team has played close to 50 games, so we have a good feel for how teams will do. That being said, I would like to eliminate nearly every team from the list of contenders and offer a list of the five teams who have a legitimate chance of winning it all this year.

This list is based on the past six years of NBA Champions. It’s a very simple system. It answers the questions of who won? How many points did they score? How many points did they allow? And what was the scoring difference? For your reference, here is a list of that info:

 

            Winner           PF       PA       Diff

2007   San Antonio 98.5    90.1    8.4

2006   Miami             99.9    96        3.9

2005   San Antonio 96.2    88.4    7.8

2004   Detroit          90.1    84.3    5.8

2003   San Antonio 95.8    90.4    5.4

2002   LA Lakers     101.3  94.1    7.2

            Averages       97.0    90.6    6.4

Based on these winners, there are some easy indicators that I’ve found. First, no team in the past six years has won the title allowing more than 96 points a game during the regular season. Second, no team has won the title averaging less than 90 points, but a better indicator for this stat is the average points scored of 97. Last, no team has won the title with less than a scoring differential of 3.9. So, with these stats in mind, who are the legitimate title contenders for 2008? As of February 9, they are:

1          Detroit          97.5    89.9    7.6

2          Boston           99.6    89        10.6

3          Dallas             100.2  95.6    4.6

4          San Antonio 96.3    91.2    5.1

5          New Orleans 100.2  94.6    5.6

I think that based on these stats, Detroit has the most legitimate chance of winning. I know Boston’s numbers are more impressive, but they have NO PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE as a team together. If they did, I would label them the hands-down favorite to win. As you can see, there is no one else in the East who has a real shot at winning it all.

In the West, I put Dallas first, based on their stats (and my personal bias). They’ve got a great nucleus and are playing putting up great number. I would not count San Antonio yet, simply because they’ve won it all so many times this past decade. And New Orleans is in a similar situation with Boston in their lack of playoff experience, so I really don’t see them even making the Western Conference finals.

This list leaves out the team with the best record in the West: The Phoenix Suns. They made a blockbuster trade this week in picking up Shaq, so it’s hard to really know where they will end up come playoff time. But as of right now, they don’t match up with the statistical criteria for NBA Champions. I also don’t think that Shaq will put them over the top. I expect them to fizzle out of the playoffs in either the first or second round.

The other team that isn’t on this list that needs to be considered is the LA Lakers. The Suns are getting all the trade attention because of the Big Aristotle, but Pau Gasol is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He was hidden in Memphis for his whole career, but now he will be getting the attention he deserves. It’s hard to say for sure, but the Lakers may end up being a force to be reckoned with.

With all of that being said, let me make my NBA Final prediction: Dallas vs Detroit. This may cause some family problems for my younger brother.

Last week I told you that it’s too early to be worried about the Mavericks. In case that post did not convince you, here are two more reasons why:  1) they have won four games in a row and six out of seven; and 2) there are only two teams in the Western Conference with a better record (San Antonio and Phoenix) and Dallas is 2-1 against them this year.

That said, it’s still too early to get too excited about how well they are doing. If I did that I would be contradicting myself.

I’ve had a few people ask me if I’m worried about the Dallas Mavericks having trouble early in the season. They have lost games that they should have won and are not showing much chemistry. This is making some people say that they should have dismantled the team after last season’s embarrassing defeat to the Golden State Warriors. I do not think that it is time to dismantle the team, yet.

Let’s take a brief look at how the Mavs are doing in comparison to recent history. Currently they are 13-8 and trail San Antonio by 4.5 games. At this point last year, the year the Mavs won 67 games, Dallas was 14-7. Two years ago, the year the Mavs went to the NBA Finals, Dallas was 15-6. The Mavs are only 1-2 games worse this year than they were either of the two previous years.

Let’s take a quick look at San Antonio, last year’s NBA Champions.  21 games into the season last year they were 15-6. It turned out pretty well for them I would say.

Overall, I think it is way too early to hit the panic button on this season. There is just WAY TOO MUCH basketball still to be played. History has also shown us that the regular season has very little impact on what happens in the playoffs. So, should you be concerned about the Mavs’ slow start? Not yet. They definitely have a lot of areas in which they need to improve, but I would much rather they figure those things out closer to the end of the regular season to gain some momentum for the playoffs.

The time has finally come for the playoffs. It was a spectacular regular season for Dallas and Phoenix fans, but very little drama elsewhere in the league. On this first day of the playoffs, I’d like to take a look back at my pre-season predictions to see how I did.

In the West, I was right about Dallas and Utah winning their divisions, but my seedings were way off. The Nuggets surprised me, which probably had a lot to do with picking up Iverson in the middle of the season. Houston did MUCH better than I expected, as did the Lakers. I got six out of the eight teams in the playoffs right, so at least I was close. In the East, I correctly picked seven of the playoff teams, with Toronto being the surprise team this year. All in all, it wasn’t very hard to pick who would make it.

As for the playoffs, here are my predictions by round:

West, Round 1

1. Dallas vs. 8. Golden State
Dallas wins in 5 games. The regular season will have no bearing on this series whatsoever. Devean George missed the first two games against them and JJ Barea started in the third game. Dallas will be fully prepared to stop whatever Nellie throws at them. They did it against a much better Suns team last year in the playoffs and Dallas has improved a lot since then.

2. Phoenix vs. 7. LA Lakers
Phoenix wins in 5 games. The Suns are better prepared for Kobe and the Lakers limped into the playoffs. No repeat of the drama from last year’s series.

3. San Antonio vs. 6. Denver
San Antonio in 5 games (Notice a trend?). While the Nuggets have two legitimate superstars, they have very little else. The Spurs are playing unbelievable basketball and will only struggle in one game.

4. Utah vs. 5. Houston
Houston in 7 games. This will finally be the year the Tracy McGrady actually gets to feel what it’s like to make it to the second round of the playoffs. Utah is a solid team with a great coach, but they will come up just short in the end.

East, Round 1

1. Detroit vs. 8. Orlando
Detroit wins in 4 games. Orlando doesn’t have enough to compete with the depth of the Pistons.

2. Cleveland vs. 7. Washington
Cleveland wins in 5 games. Washington will find a way to avoid a sweep, but nothing more.

3. Toronto vs. 6. New Jersey
New Jersey wins in 6 games. Toronto is a young team facing an experience New Jersey. The games will be close, but this will be the biggest upset of the first round according to seedings.

4. Miami vs. 5. Chicago
Chicago wins in 7 games. As great as the Heat were at closing out games last playoffs, they won’t do it again this year. With Dwyane Wade hurt and Shaq another year older, Chicago will end up taking the series on their home court in the 7th game.

West Champ: Dallas
East Champ: Detroit
NBA Champ: Dallas